Our 2026 NRL Tips Record
we picked each game on its own, without hindsight, and were right 132 times out of 213 games (62%).
- Our model
- 132/213
- margin miss on average
- 15.7
- margins inside 6 points
- 62
- The Brier score
- 0.235
Round after round
| Round | Our model | Zac Bailey | Home team every game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 3/8 | 4/8 | 5/8 |
| Round 2 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 |
| Round 3 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 3/8 |
| Round 4 | 3/8 | 2/8 | 4/8 |
| Round 5 | 5/8 | 7/8 | 4/8 |
| Round 6 | 2/8 | 3/8 | 2/8 |
| Round 7 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 5/8 |
| Round 8 | 7/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 |
| Round 9 | 5/8 | 8/8 | 5/8 |
| Round 10 | 7/8 | 7/8 | 5/8 |
| Round 11 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 3/8 |
| Round 12 | 4/5 | 3/5 | 3/5 |
| Round 13 | 5/7 | 4/7 | 6/7 |
| Round 14 | 6/8 | 5/8 | 4/8 |
| Round 15 | 4/5 | 4/5 | 4/5 |
| Round 16 | 5/7 | 5/7 | 6/7 |
| Round 17 | 6/8 | 6/8 | 5/8 |
| Round 18 | 3/5 | 2/5 | 4/5 |
| Round 19 | 4/7 | 3/7 | 3/7 |
| Round 20 | 5/8 | 5/8 | 7/8 |
| Round 21 | 6/8 | 4/8 | 4/8 |
| Round 22 | 6/8 | 7/8 | 2/8 |
| Round 23 | 4/8 | 7/8 | 6/8 |
| Round 24 | 3/8 | 4/8 | 2/8 |
| Round 25 | 5/8 | 4/8 | 1/8 |
| Round 26 | 6/8 | 6/8 | 5/8 |
| Round 27 | 4/8 | 5/8 | 4/8 |
| Finals Week 1 | 2/4 | 2/4 | 2/4 |
| Semi-Finals | 1/2 | 2/2 | 1/2 |
| Preliminary Finals | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/2 |
| Grand Final | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 |
If we felt confident, did we get it right?
We group the games by the win chance we gave the side we tipped.
| Our win chance | Games | Correct |
|---|---|---|
| 50-59% | 75 | 45 (60%) |
| 60-69% | 74 | 40 (54%) |
| 70-79% | 52 | 39 (75%) |
| 80-89% | 9 | 6 (67%) |
| 90-99% | 3 | 2 (67%) |
The way the model works
Each club holds a single number: how many points above or below an average side it sits. To work out the predicted margin, subtract the away rating from the home rating, then add a home-ground edge if the home club plays at a ground it uses regularly.
Once a game ends, both ratings shift by a share of that error. A club beating the prediction by 20 moves up, while its opponent moves down by the same amount. Ratings are pulled partway back to average in between seasons.
We fitted the pull back to average, the home edge and the size of each move on the 2025 season, using 2024 as a warm-up. For the 2026 tips above, we made each one using only results known before the game started.
When a tip is first published, it goes into our picks ledger, and we never edit it afterwards. Later builds only add in the score. After the season, the 2026 NRL tips from the run above were frozen into the ledger, so treat them as a backtest. Before kick-off, we logged every newer tip (2 so far).
Fitted values: every game adjusts ratings by 0.06 of the error. The home edge is 4.5 points, while 50% of each rating carries into the following season. For 2025, the average margin miss was 13.8 points.
Results: draw data from nrl.com for 2024, 2025 and 2026.